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What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices

May 20th, 2008 by

Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that oil would be at $141 a barrel by the end of the year, and rising to $200 a barrel in the not too distant future. I have seen other forecasts calling for oil to slip significantly under $100 a barrel before starting yet another bull market. I have written for years that we are not going to run out of oil or energy, just cheap oil. I was just in South Africa, where much of their gas and diesel comes from coal gasification. At one time this was an expensive

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EUR/USD Daily Technical Forex

May 20th, 2008 by

Current level at 11:52 CET is 1.5632, trading above the daily pivot point level of 1.5546 and also above first resistance at 1.5606. Second resistance is set at 1.5693. Movements over the past two weeks reveal a chain of higher highs and higher lows. Daily standard error bands are poised to the upside while the daily Ichimoku cloud top is nearby at 1.5655. While recent market activity has been choppy, the overall tendency has been characterized by a gradual edging to the upside, which may well

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Stocks and USDJPY to turn lower?

May 20th, 2008 by

USDJPY is at important trendline support and looking weak. Stocks could also take a breather here. Overnight News Bullets JN Tokyo Dept. Store Sales YoY (Apr) out at -0.7% vs. -0.7% prior. JN Nationwide Dept. Sales YoY (Apr) out at -3.4% vs. -1.2% prior. E-Z Construction Output MoM (Mar) out at -2.2% vs. 1.2% prior. E-Z Construction Output YoY (Mar) out at -1.4% vs. 4.3% prior. US Leading Indicators (Apr) out at 0.1% vs. 0.0% expected. NZ Visitor Arrivals (Apr) out at -11.8% vs. -0.3% prior.

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Strong Tailwind for NOK Ahead

May 20th, 2008 by

Today’s comment Majors & Scandies By the Majors & Scandis Team Yesterday the dollar bounced back due to a stronger than anticipated leading indicator from the US. Momentum is still downwards for the dollar and the currency cross rate is still trading is a downwards trend channel. Bank of Japan kept its main policy rate steady at the rate announcement this morning as widely expected by the market and by our economists. The minutes from the policy meeting in Reserve Bank of Australia in

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Fxtechtrade

May 20th, 2008 by

Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : 1.4692 and 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 and 1.5660. Break of the letter will lead to 1.5865, 1.7280 и 1.9430. Support (daily close) : : 1.4366 , 1.3972, 1.3770 and 1.3567. Then 1.3411, 1.3263, 1.3106 and 1.2964 (published on 07.11.2007) . Dow Jones : Resistance(daily close) : 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53. Then 13 972.50, 14 045.62, 14 124.38 and 14 225.63 . Break of the latter

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Weekly Technical Commentary

May 20th, 2008 by

USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 103.00..102.50..100.75..100.00. Resistance 104.66..105.50..105.70..106.65 Very slow work but prices appear to be forming an interim ‘double top’ at 105.50 area. As well as being the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, this has been a pivotal area over many years. Momentum is just bearish and should increase on a break below last week’s low at 102.57. Probably not this month but some time during the summer we favour for a drop back down to 100.00. In fact we would

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19 May - 23 May 2008

May 19th, 2008 by

The Weekly Overview shows significant economic events during the Week 19 May – 23 May 2008

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Will Dollar Bulls Get Nervous Again?

May 19th, 2008 by

The US dollar just had its biggest weekly fall against the Euro in a month on decades-low US consumer confidence and record prices of crude oil. On Friday, crude oil rose to an all-time high of $127.82 a barrel, after Goldman Sachs increased its forecast to an average of $141 a barrel for the second half of this year, up from $107, saying that demand from BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will overwhelm supply. The dollar also got an indirect hit when the head of the FDIC (Federal

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Stocks Continue To Rise Despite High Oil Prices

May 19th, 2008 by

Despite oil prices reaching a new record high above $127, the worst consumer confidence in 28 years and the worst housing starts in individual family homes since 1991, the stock markets finished on a higher note last week. The Dow was up 1.89%; the S&P 500 was up 2.67% and the Nasdaq finished the week up 3.41%. Can this winning streak continue into next week? First let’s look at oil: after President Bush’s begging while visiting Saudi Arabia, the Saudis have agreed to increase oil output

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Supply and Demand Q&A With Sam Seiden

May 19th, 2008 by

Often I receive emails with questions about the articles. For today, I thought I would share some recurring questions and answers with you for your benefit. Just a note before we begin: My email has been down for three days so if you have sent an email during that time, I didn’t receive it. Please resend as it is working fine now. The questions and answers for today all have to do with supply (resistance) and demand (support). We will use a chart of the DOW today to help illustrate the Q&A